제시 리버모어 (1877년 7월 26일 ~ 1940년 11월 28일)
20세기 월스트리트를 주름잡은 당대 최고의 투기자
월가의 큰곰, 월스트리트 역사상 가장 위대한 개인투자자로 칭송받은 제시 리버모어
주식투자의 전략으로는 모멘텀투자(Momentum Trading), 가치투자(Value investing strategy), 역발상 투자(Contrarian investment), 추세매매(Trend following) 등이 있으며 제시 리버모어는 추세매매의 아버지라 불리운다.
제시 리버모어의 생애
- 1877년 7월 26일 미국 매사추세츠 주 액튼의 가난한 농부 집안에서 출생
- 10대 초반 초등학교를 졸업하자마자 가난한 빈농의 삶이 견딜 수 없어 어머니가 마련해 준 단돈 5달러를 들고 가출
- 14세에 보스턴의 주식중개회사 페인웨버에서 시세판 담당자로 근무
- 15세 무렵 사설 거래소를 전전하며 주식과 상품거래를 통해 1천 달러 수익 (사설 거래소 업계에서 "몰빵 꼬마"라는 별칭으로 요주 대상이 되어 거래소 출입 금지를 당하기도 했음
- 20세 무렵에 회사를 그만두고 전업 트레이더로 나섬 (1만달러 수익)
- 21세에 뉴욕 증권거래소로 활동을 시작하여 22세에 전재산을 잃고 다시 사설 거래소로 돌아서 주식거래에 전념
- 1906년 4월 다시 뉴욕 증권거래소로 가서 유니온퍼시픽 주식을 공매도 하여 25만달러의 수익
- 1907년 10월 공매도로 3백만 달러 수익 (샌프란시스코 대지진 발생)
- 1908년 면화와 밀 상품거래에서 대규모 손실
- 1929년 가을 대폭락 장세에서 공매도로 1억 달러 수익
- 1939년 3월 "주식 투자의 기술" 출간
- 1940년 맨하턴 셔리 네델란드 호텔 휴대품 보관소 의자에 앉아 32구경 콜트 자동권총으로 오른쪽 귀 뒷부분에 겨냥하여 자살
* 세번의 실패한 결혼 생활과 과도한 음주, 말년에 우울증까지 겹침
제시 리버모어의 추세매매
- 추세 발생 시점을 기다렸다가 자금의 일부를 일단 투입하고, 추세가 강화되면 자금을 추가로 속속 투입하는 트레이딩 기법
- 결정적인 순간 대중들의 정서와 거스르는 포지션을 취했고, 피라미딩 방식으로 포지션을 쌓아가 최대수익 최소손실을 추구
- 추세가 좀처럼 강화되지 않거나 역추세가 발생할 때를 대비하여, 자금의 일부만 투입했다가 추세 역행 움직임이 나타나면 손절매하는 기법을 실천.
- 단기간 고수익을 추구하는 공격적이고 위험 수준이 높은 거래를 하면서도 실패했을 때의 손실을 최소화하면서 재기할 수 있는 자금을 확보해두는 전략
- 확실한 추세라고 판단하면 신고가에서도 이른바 추격 매수를 과감하게 했지만, 별다른 추세를 감지하기 힘들 때는 거래를 완전히 쉬기도 했음
- 남들이 말하거나 떠도는 정보에 귀를 기울이지 않는 것도 그가 지키고자 한 원칙
- 기분과 감정을 철저하게 배제시키고 오로지 시세의 흐름에만 주목하는 원칙
- 거래 종목 선정에서는 시장을 주도하는 업종과 그 업종 안에서 주도적인 위치를 차지하는 종목을 선택
- 비교적 한정된 소수의 우량주로 범위를 좁혀 거래했던 것.
- 투자원금 대비 수익이 일정 수준에 도달하면 일정 비율의 수익을 인출하여 완전하게 수익을 실현 원칙
- 그가 실패를 경험했을 때는 자기가 정한 원칙을 스스로 어겼을 때
제시 리버모어 주요 어록
1. The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.
2. Just remember, without discipline, a clear strategy, and a concise plan, the speculator will fall into all the emotional pitfalls of the market - jump from one stock to another, hold a losing position too long, and cut out of a winner too soon, for no reason other than fear of losing profit. Greed, Fear, Impatience, Ignorance, and Hope will all fight for mental dominance over the speculator. Then, after a few failures and catastrophes the speculator may become demoralised, depressed, despondent, and abandon the market and the chance to make a fortune from what the market has to offer.
3. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market your game is to buy and hold until you believe that the bull market is near its end. To do this you must study general conditions and not tips or special factors affecting individual stocks.
4. A man may see straight and clearly and yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
5. A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
6. Every once in a while you must go to cash, take a break, take a vacation. Don't try to play the market all the time. It can't be done, too tough on the emotions.
7. The stock market is never obvious. It is designed to fool most of the people, most of the time.
8. It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted - not what they said they were going to do.
9. Don't take action with a trade until the market, itself, confirms your opinion. Being a little late in a trade is insurance that your opinion is correct. In other words, don't be an impatient trader.
10. It takes a man a long time to learn all the lessons of all his mistakes.
11. If a man is both wise and lucky, he will not make the same mistake twice. But he will make any one of ten thousand brothers or cousins of the original.
12. It isn't a hunch but the subconscious mind, which is the creative mind, at work. That is the mind which makes artists do things without their knowing how they came to do them. Perhaps with me it was the cumulative effect of a lot of little things individually insignificant but collectively powerful.
13. The average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think.
14. When everyone thinks alike, there isn't much thinking taking place. Get out when you can, not when you have to.
15. Without faith in his own judgment no man can go very far in this game. That is about all I have learned - to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it. I can wait without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken, knowing that it is only temporary.
16. It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let this thought be written indelibly upon your mind.
17. Remember this: When you are doing nothing, those speculators who feel they must trade day in and day out, are laying the foundation for your next venture. You will reap benefits from their mistakes.
18. To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.
19. I began to realize that the big money must necessarily be in the big swing.
20. I never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia.
21. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.
22. There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.
23. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight.
24. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.
25. "I can't sleep" answered the nervous one.
"Why not?" asked the friend.
"I am carrying so much cotton that I can't sleep thinking about. It is wearing me out. What can I do?"
"Sell down to the sleeping point", answered the friend.
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